Archive: 02/11/2008

Main News
 
No recession, says Yellen. Fed governor Janet Yellen says a slowing economy will not lead to "outright recession." Yellen was open to future rate cuts, in contrast to recent Fed speakers who have expressed concern the FOMC not go overboard. On the other hand, forecasting firm Global Insight says the economy is already in mild recession.
 
L'Affaire Société Générale
Not only Jérôme Kerviel is pointing an accusing finger at the French bank ... more
 
Hedge funds put up shutters to weather storm
Financial Times Sun, 10 Feb 2008 2:15 PM PST
Hedge funds are beginning to close their doors or lay off teams of traders in response to the unprecedented gridlock in the debt markets which has led to losses and significantly reduced the amount of money banks are willing to lend their hedge fund clients.
 
Report attacks fee structure
The proportion of funds of hedge funds that beat the market has fallen from an already low base over the past 12 years, according to the latest academic research.
http://mail2.efnmail.co.uk/r/339161/MTk4MTI1OjE2Mzg0/
 
Fear of embarrassment fuels funds of funds expansion
European funds of hedge funds are taking advantage of increasing demand from US pension schemes, which have grown wary of direct investment in hedge funds.
http://mail2.efnmail.co.uk/r/339163/MTk4MTI1OjE2Mzg0/
 
Funds of hedge funds soar 30%
Investors poured money into funds of hedge funds last year in spite of the credit crunch, high fees, mediocre performance and the collapse of several high profile hedge funds.
http://mail2.efnmail.co.uk/r/339255/MTk4MTI1OjE2Mzg0/
 
Banks to propose operational risk changes
A group of 20 investment banks has agreed to present a series of recommendations to the Financial Services Authority for improving operational risk management controls in the wake of the ?4.9bn ($7.1bn) trading scandal at Société Générale.
http://mail2.efnmail.co.uk/r/339310/MTk4MTI1OjE2Mzg0/
 
Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities
CMBS Quarterly Insights: The Best And Worst Of CMBS In 2007 From A Ratings Perspective, And 2008 Outlook
The commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) sector experienced both highs and lows in 2007. The "Best of CMBS" looks at various performance measures, particularly the positive effects that healthy property fundamentals have had on CMBS loan collateral. The "Worst of CMBS" focuses on the increasing amount of delinquencies in recent-vintage year loan originations, as well as several high-profile borrowers that are experiencing operating issues.
To learn more, click or copy and paste the URL below:
(subscription required)
http://standardandpoors.rsys1.net/servlet/cc5?kHiQAYBDQTVsLgHxhilpuHQJhuV2VA
 
CDO update: talk of firesale, liquidations begin
FT Alphaville - London,UK
At Christmas, 33 CDOs had triggered “events of default”. Mid January and that number had risen to 58. According to Standard & Poor’s that figure has now ...
 
S&P Lowers Its Ratings On $5.2 Billion in CDOs
Wall Street Journal - USA
At the same time, it warned of ratings cuts on $263.9 billion of asset-backed CDOs and CDO of CDOs, or 35% of such transactions S&P rated. ...
 
Bill Gross to Ambac: "Please Die Quickly"
Seeking Alpha - New York,NY,USA
On January 30 Pershing Square released an open-source spreadsheet containing information on CDO guarantees written by MBIA and Ambac. ...
 
Can 130/30 outperform long-only funds?
Lee Munder Capital Group, with more than $4bn in assets under management, has back-tested 130/30 strategies in one of the first empirical comparisons with long-only strategies. The conclusion? They outperformed long-only funds from January 1994 through December 2006.
 
The rogue rebuttal
Not only Jérôme Kerviel is pointing an accusing finger at Société Générale
Full article
THE OUTLOOK, by Bob Davis
Free traders have long argued that expanded trade is a force for political freedom abroad. But will sovereign-wealth funds do the same for democracy? Fans of the trade-produces-political-change argument doubt so.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120269131203357683.html?mod=djemtct
 
Buyout firms cast their net wider for deals
Private equity firms are exploring investments in sectors they have not traditionally been active in to boost returns that are threatened by the lack of liquidity following the credit crunch, according to respondents to the third annual poll of financial sponsors conducted by Financial News' sister publication, Private Equity News.
http://mail2.efnmail.co.uk/r/339246/MTk4MTI1OjE2Mzg0/
 
Blackstone starts year with a Yahoo!
Blackstone's appearance as an adviser to Microsoft on its $44.6bn (?30bn) offer for internet search provider Yahoo! has again thrown the spotlight on the alternative investment group's advisory business, which got off to a flying start this year.
http://mail2.efnmail.co.uk/r/339154/MTk4MTI1OjE2Mzg0/
 
Brace YourselfAN INTERVIEW WITH JEREMY GRANTHAM: The investment world's voice of reason sees a few tough years ahead -- but great bargains in 2010.
http://barrons.wsjprod.dowjones.net/article/SB120251582071855267.html?mod=djemWR
 
Goldman Fund Dropped 6%
Bloomberg.com Thu, 07 Feb 2008 9:44 PM PST
Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund managers who concentrate on picking stocks lost an average of 4.1 percent in January, the biggest monthly decline in more than seven years, as global equity markets tumbled, a Hedge Fund Research Inc. report shows.
 
Markowitz Touts Managed Futures at Superfund Opening
CHICAGO (HedgeWorld.com)—Superfund Asset Management, the U.S. arm of the global managed futures investment group Superfund, opened the doors of its new Chicago office on Wednesday [Feb. ......
 
John Lee Responds to Nobel Laureate Stiglitz's Subprime Thesis <http://seekingalpha.com/article/63738-john-lee-responds-to-nobel-laureate-stiglitz-s-subprime-thesis?source=i_email>
by John Lee <http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-lee?source=i_email>
 
HFR Overhauls HF Classifications
 
Hedge funds and op risk
Market pressure and regulators are forcing hedge funds to look more closely at operational risk issues.
More on Management...
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Yield Curve Corner
 
UPDATE 1-Fed monitoring bond insurer impacts-Bernanke
Reuters - USA
WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a letter released on Wednesday that the Fed is "closely monitoring" any ...
 
Market Braces For Retail Data, Bernanke's Testimony
FOXBusiness - USA
Data reports for the upcoming week are likely to continue to show the need for some help and even Bernanke’s testimony may not calm troubled waters. ..
 
Bernanke Watch
Forbes - NY,USA
... Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to testify in Washington, with investors waiting to dissect his words for any hint of another emergency rate cut.
 
ACKMAN CALLS FOR STRONG MEDICINE
New York Post Fri, 08 Feb 2008 1:51 AM PST
A new war of words is erupting over whether Wall Street's best medicine is to quickly flush $200 billion of the bad debt clogging its gut. Hedge fund chief Bill Ackman and Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke are at odds over a widely held economic...
 
Anna Schwartz: 'The Fed Is Inviting Inflation'
BY JULIE SATOW - Staff Reporter of the Sun
The noted economist Anna Schwartz is scoffing at suggestions that the economy is in a recession, and she is accusing the Federal Reserve of "ignoring" the dangers of inflation. "I think the Fed is inviting inflation by lowering rates to the extent...
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Natural Disaster Corner
 
http://www.noaa.gov/
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/Data/index.html
http://tsunami.gov/
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/
Climate Prediction  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/predictions.php
World Meterological Organization http://severe.worldweather.org/
Tornadoes: http://www.disastercenter.com/tornado.htm
Great Sat Pictures of events: http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRChondoivan039_MT.jpg
 
Weather Risk – US Weather Commentary
Hemispheric Teleconnections realigning to tweak North American pattern..... Bottom-line U.S. impacts you'll notice as a 'change' when we proceed deeper into February 2008.
Full Story...
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Iranian Situation and Other Man Made Disasters
http://www.globalincidentmap.com/home.php
http://icasualties.org/oif/
 
Outside View: Russia gets tougher on Iran
UPI Fri, 08 Feb 2008 5:23 AM PST
A new U.N. Security Council resolution on Iran may prove to be tougher than expected, after Moscow said it wanted to send serious signals to Tehran.
 
Reformers are blocked in Iran
The parliamentary elections in March will not be free
Full article
 
Khomeini's grandson speaks out ahead of Iran vote
AFP via Yahoo! News Sun, 10 Feb 2008 3:52 AM PST
The grandson of Iran's revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini has made a rare intervention ahead of elections, urging the military to avoid politics and criticising the disqualification of candidates, the media reported on Sunday.
 
Iran high on the agenda for Olmert's Berlin talks
Reuters via Yahoo! UK & Ireland News Sun, 10 Feb 2008 9:41 AM PST
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert began a visit to Germany on Sunday, planning to lobby for tougher measures to force Iran to curb a nuclear programme he has called a threat to Israel's existence.
 
Revolutionary Guards back conservatives for Iran poll
AFP via Yahoo! News Sat, 09 Feb 2008 8:28 AM PST
Iran's Revolutionary Guards commander, in a break with accepted practice, has openly called for voters to support the conservative wing in parliamentary polls, Iranian media reported on Saturday.
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Opalesque’s Corner
 
- Opalesque Exclusive: John Devaney`s Horizon funds `a classic blow-up caused by hubris, ego, and disregard for risk management` - investor prepares for total loss, `how can he continue his spin?`, Devaney and fellow creators of credit crisis revel at Las Vegas` conference
- Fund launches: Cramer Rosenthal launches 130/30 fund, Five new Danish hedge funds approved by FSA, to be launched in 2008, WR Capital launches multi-strategy FoHFs, Schroders plots Frontier Markets fund
- Merger-arb fund Tisbury Capital to shut U.S. arm due to busted ADS deal
- Performance: Goldman Sachs reports small hedge fund gains for December, First ever 130/30 UK equity fund outperforms in first six months, QIM`s $2.9b quant fund struggled in January, Update: GLG Partners loses in 4Q
- Opalesque Exclusive: Two Rothschild funds best performing Swiss FoFs in 2007 (up 28.07% and 24.76%), HSBC on ranks 3 and  4
- January worst month ever for US hedge funds, Hedge funds lost 1.8% last month as global stock markets fell, biggest losers were L/S funds, Hedge funds January results hit by European leveraged loan losses, TrimTabs/BarcalyHedge report: Investors` inflows in hedge funds dramatically down in December
- Indices: Hennessee hedge fund index down 2.75% in January, Barclay Hedge Fund Index down 3.60% in January, Parker FX Index down -0.39% in December, Top Performer: Putnam Investments Currency Fund up 4.56%, All six Dow Jones Hedge Fund Strategy benchmarks (est.) posted negative returns in January, HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index down 1.80% in January, FoFs lose 2.57%, Emerging Markets pounded
- Trends: Hedge funds may be scenting market turn, CFTC data reveals new positioning
- SocGen Update: Former SocGen inspector tells of trading room anarchy, More Kerviels found haunting trading floors worldwide, Scientists say `people get high on making money`,  Kerviel's trades a drug habit?
- Other Voices - Fred Gehm: Why I am personally responsible for Societe Generale`s $7 Billion dollar loss and what Societe Generale needs to do about it
- Credit Crunch Update:  Deutsche Bank`s Ackermann warns of monoline `tsunami`, Moody`s cuts AAA rating on SCA, MBIA to sell $750mln in stock to ensure AAA rating, Ackman urges Bernanke to stop bond insurer bailout, Merrill COO says liquidity position strong, U.S. criminal prosecutors have notified the SEC they want to see information the agency is gathering in its civil investigation of Merrill Lynch
- Rating Agencies: S&P sets ratings reform, lawyer pledges to continue investigating rating agencies` roles in mortgage crisis, Bond raters in effort to repair credibility, Cuomo calls it window-dressing, Moody`s forecast rise in credit default rate surprises sceptics
- Legal: Update: Ritchie Capital sues investors in troubled hedge fund for disparaging comments, Bear Stearns might face federal indictment over collapsed hedge funds, Tennessee Federal Court orders Christian Kis / Raptor Funds to pay over $900,000 in penalties in hedge fund fraud action
- Exchanges: Clearing reform unlikely to happen in next five years, analysts say, Chicago Climate Exchange sets new record trading day, Regulators asks NYSE to help boost transparency
- Environmental Trading News: Carbon trading may be used for the first time to help villages in Indonesia preserve trees, Study: Converting land into biofuel crops worsens global warming
- Commodities: Interview: Gold Bull may have just two to three years left to run, PGGM, one of the world`s largest pension fund commodities portfolios, reduces exposure to agriculture, scraps gold, silver
- Institutions: FASB eyes improving plans` alternatives disclosure, Cross-border pension asset pooling takes off
- People: GSO hires Canaan and trading team from Brevan Howard for mortgage fund, Palm Beach adds director, Axa Investment Managers strengthens fund of hedge funds business, TD securities beefs up coverage of hedge funds with three new hires
- Events: World-renowned NY-based psychiatrist, author and coach comes to Miami for exclusive trading psychology seminar for hedge fund managers, analysts, traders
- Administrators: Large administrators thrive as investors favor known names, Administrator OpHedge hires Peter Sanchez as chief executive
- Sovereign Wealth Funds: SEC warns of possible trouble, insider trading with sovereign funds, Insight: Some SWF are getting cold feet about western banks, Chinese sovereign wealth fund close to fund deal with JC Flowers
- Activist News: TCI criticizes CSX bylaw change, Patience in Northwest deal could pay off for Marathon, Another Italian company faces an activist investor, Cycladic replaced by Photo-Me former chairman on share register
- News Briefs: Dollar rebound gains momentum, erased its loss for the year against the euro, CFTC allows eight Eurex Deutschland futures contracts to be offered and sold in the U.S., Hedge funds down as London`s Mayfair lost communications yesterday, Santander shrugs off subprime impact, LatAm accounts for third of profits, Tokyo halts some futures trading as TSE suffers computer glitch
- ...And finally: Lab finds chocolate in $44 box of chocolates. Also finds cat hair, clothing fibers and small insect parts. Mmmm... small insect parts
- Logon: http://www.opalesque.com/main.php?act=archive
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Misc. Items of Interest
 
No charges seen in mystery-shrouded death
The Palm Beach Post Sat, 09 Feb 2008 9:10 PM PST
The widow of former CNBC pundit and hedge fund wiz Seth Tobias probably will not be charged in connection with his mysterious death last year, Page Two has learned.
 
Roundtable Wrapup -- take a look at economic insights and investing tips from the members of the Barron's 2008 Roundtable.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120112192123510983.html
 
GOLDMAN OFFERS SEX-CHANGE OPTION
 Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world&#39;s biggest securities firm, expanded its health insurance plans last year to cover sex-reassignment surgery as it seeks to build a more diverse workforce, Fortune reported.The employee plans covers...
full story: http://www.nypost.com/seven/02092008/business/goldman_offers_sex_change_option_599786.htm

Hedge Fund, Private Equity Donations Favor Democrats in '08 Race
International Business Times - New York,NY,USA
By Joseph Major Hedge funds - the large, private pools of investment capital - and private equity firms, are giving campaign funds to Democrats at a faster ...
 
The Impact of Pashtun Tribal Differences on the Pakistani Taliban
By Rahimullah Yusufzai
Though members of militant Islamic groups such as the Pakistani Taliban and other jihadis have almost the same anti-United States and pro-al-Qaeda worldview, they are not especially disciplined when it comes to organizational matters. Difficulty in this area explains the existence of so many extremist factions operating under different leaders and commanders who sometimes express conflicting opinions on domestic and international issues.
READ FULL STORY


 
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Funnies, Facts, Quotes, etc….
 
raiment RAY-ment, noun:
Clothing in general; garments; -- usually singular in form, with a collective sense.
 
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Conference, Courses, Books, Papers
 
Great Research Sites:
http://www.highbeam.com/
http://www.dealbreaker.com/
http://seekingalpha.com/
www.riskmterics.com
http://www.allaboutalpha.com/blog/
 
Merrill Lynch research Link to full report including important disclosures see example
http://rsch1.ml.com/9093/24013/ds/78763025.PDF
 
John Mauldin’s Weekly Analysis
www.frontlinethoughts.com
 
James Altucher’s Website:
www.stockpickr.com
 
Other useful sites:
www.flyonthewall.com
www.gloriamundi.com
 
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Index Corner
 
The CSFB/Tremont Hedge Fund Index www.hedgeindex.com.
The Cogent Dynamic Averages http://www.cogenthedge.com/home/inv_strategy.asphttp://www.cogenthedge.com/home/inv_strategy.asp
The Dow Jones Indices: http://www.djhedgefundindexes.com/index.cfm?event=viewPremiumContent (free registration)
HFRX Indices https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/hfrx_reg/index.php?fuse=login&1170880431
http://www.cogenthedge.com/home/inv_strategy.asp
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Regulatory Info
 
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
Division of Enforcement: +1 866-FON-CFTC
http://www.cftc.gov/enf/enfform.htm
http://www.cftc.gov/enf/enfform.htm
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
e-mail: enforcement@sec.gov
http://www.sec.gov/complaint.shtml
http://www.sec.gov/complaint.shtml
Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF)
Ombudsman's office: +33 (0)1 5345-6464
French: http://www.cob.fr/affiche_page.asp?urldoc=mediateur.htm&lang=fr&Id_Tab=0
English: http://www.cob.fr/affiche_page.asp?urldoc=mediateur.htm&lang=en&Id_Tab=0
http://www.cob.fr/affiche_page.asp?urldoc=mediateur.htm&lang=en&Id_Tab=0
Financial Services Authority (FSA)
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/consumer/01_WARNINGS/scams/mn_scams.html
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/consumer/01_WARNINGS/scams/mn_scams.html
Financial Ombudsman Service: 0845 080 1800, outside the UK: +44 (0)20 7964 1000
complaint.info@financial-ombudsman.org.uk
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/consumer/01_WARNINGS/scams/mn_scams.html
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC)
http://www.sfc.hk/sfc/html/EN/inutilbar/contact/contact.html
Investor Hotline: 852-2840-9333
investor.info@sfc.hkhttp://www.sfc.hk/sfc/html/EN/inutilbar/contact/contact.htmlhttp://www.sfc.hk/sfc/html/EN/inutilbar/contact/contact.htmlhttp://www.sfc.hk/sfc/html/EN/inutilbar/contact/contact.html
 
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Disclaimer
 
The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell any security or other type of vehicles to or by anyone in any jurisdictions, nor should it be regarded as a contractual document. Under no circumstances should the information provided on this document be considered as financial advice, or as a sufficient basis on which to make investment decisions. The information contained herein has been gathered by Investor DNA, LLC from sources deemed reliable as of the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy or completeness is given. Investor DNA, LLC is not responsible for and provides no guarantee with respect to any of the information provided herein or through the use of any hypertext link. Past results are no indication of future performance. All information in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or accounting advice. All materials are the property of the respective publishers, as referenced by header and appropriate hypertext links.
 


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