Archive: 02/06/2008
Main News
2008 May See Rough Start
Barrington Research says the first quarter has the most risk of negative growth.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120215436847041777.html?mod=djemBF
Barrington Research says the first quarter has the most risk of negative growth.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120215436847041777.html?mod=djemBF
'Anyone for Used Corporate-Debt, Cheap?' Why Leveraged Loans That Financed Buyouts Are Causing Bottleneck By LIZ RAPPAPORT and PETER LATTMAN ...
www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?singlepost=272706 - 38 minutes ago -
www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?singlepost=272706 - 38 minutes ago -
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The latest UK and international business, finance, economic and political news, comment and analysis from the Financial Times on FT.com. www.ft.com/cms/s/502dde40-cae7-11dc-a960-000077b07658.html - 45k - |
Grin and Bear It
Donald Luskin
Even if we are in a recession, the outlook for stocks remains good.
http://www.smartmoney.com/t.cfm?pId=7&mID=374&mDt=02/05/2008&ui=1157312&ctu=%2Faheadofthecurve%2Findex%2Ecfm%3Fstory%3D20080201%2Drecession%2Dnot%2Dbad
Donald Luskin
Even if we are in a recession, the outlook for stocks remains good.
http://www.smartmoney.com/t.cfm?pId=7&mID=374&mDt=02/05/2008&ui=1157312&ctu=%2Faheadofthecurve%2Findex%2Ecfm%3Fstory%3D20080201%2Drecession%2Dnot%2Dbad
In the wake of yet another rogue trading scandal, it is a little tempting for financial institutions to introduce another round of stringent risk management controls; yet, such mechanistic measures may actually become counterproductive.
Investors pull funds out of laggard Japanese hedge fund
International Herald Tribune Tue, 05 Feb 2008 6:42 AM PST
Japanese hedge funds have been the pariah of the asset class after two years of losses, while funds in China and India have been raking in investors' cash and enjoying strong returns.
International Herald Tribune Tue, 05 Feb 2008 6:42 AM PST
Japanese hedge funds have been the pariah of the asset class after two years of losses, while funds in China and India have been raking in investors' cash and enjoying strong returns.
New Goldman Hedge Fund Down 6% In January
Source: FINalternatives
Goldman Sachs' effort to diversify its hedge fund offerings is off to a rocky start.
Its new hedge fund, Goldman Sachs Opportunity Partners, finds itself in the same position its quantitative peers found themselves last year: in the red. GSIP, Goldman's first stock-picking offering, fell 6% last month, the Wall Street blog DealBreaker.com reports. More... <http://www.hedgefund-index.com/newstoday.asp>
Source: FINalternatives
Goldman Sachs' effort to diversify its hedge fund offerings is off to a rocky start.
Its new hedge fund, Goldman Sachs Opportunity Partners, finds itself in the same position its quantitative peers found themselves last year: in the red. GSIP, Goldman's first stock-picking offering, fell 6% last month, the Wall Street blog DealBreaker.com reports. More... <http://www.hedgefund-index.com/newstoday.asp>
CDO Market Remains Almost Frozen, JPMorgan, Merrill Traders Say. By Jody Shenn. Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Buying and selling of collateralized debt obligations ...
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCk0Qr1f2Eew&refer=home - 11 hours ago -
www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aCk0Qr1f2Eew&refer=home - 11 hours ago -
Corporate Finance | PETRODOLLARS AND THE WORLD ECONOMY
The huge increase in oil prices since 2002 has made petrodollar investors the
largest and fastest-growing part of a broad shift in the global economy. So
far, their money has dampened interest rates and buoyed financial assets. Could
the high cost of oil actually have good consequences? Discover "The new role of
oil wealth in the world economy."
http://e.mckinseyquarterly.com/W0RT010A380D132CE4E1934474B490
The huge increase in oil prices since 2002 has made petrodollar investors the
largest and fastest-growing part of a broad shift in the global economy. So
far, their money has dampened interest rates and buoyed financial assets. Could
the high cost of oil actually have good consequences? Discover "The new role of
oil wealth in the world economy."
http://e.mckinseyquarterly.com/W0RT010A380D132CE4E1934474B490
Fitch plans CDO overhaul, sees 5-notch downgrades
Guardian Unlimited - UK
Fitch said the change in methodology would probably hit synthetic CDOs the hardest, leading to an average downgrade of five notches for the $75 billion ...
Guardian Unlimited - UK
Fitch said the change in methodology would probably hit synthetic CDOs the hardest, leading to an average downgrade of five notches for the $75 billion ...
CDOs face great fall. Fitch Ratings may lower $220 billion of collateralized debt obligations [CDOs] by as many as five levels as losses on mortgage-backed securities mount. AAA-rated credit-default swaps that aren't actively managed may face the steepest downgrades.
Moody's proposes new debt rating system
Moody's on Monday moved to respond to its critics by proposing a new rating system for complex debt securities that would rely on numbers rather than letters. (Financial Times)
http://mail2.efnmail.co.uk/r/338091/MTk4MTI1OjE2MzMz/
Moody's on Monday moved to respond to its critics by proposing a new rating system for complex debt securities that would rely on numbers rather than letters. (Financial Times)
http://mail2.efnmail.co.uk/r/338091/MTk4MTI1OjE2MzMz/
The ‘mortgage crisis’ has now become a household name in the households that get the Journal every morning and with no end to the phenomenon in sight, many are now scratching their heads as to where the blame should fall. And in a surprising change of pace, someone is finally blaming… themselves for the catastrophe. Well, maybe “blaming” is not the most appropriate word but the rating agencies are now coming out and saying that they are thinking about changing their operation.
Downgrades Of Bond Insurers Can Add To Subprime Woes For Banks
Bond insurers are suffering as a result of their roles as guarantors of mortgage-related securities, and downgrading them could affect all markets in which they are active, including the municipal bond, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other structured finance areas. In turn, dislocation in those markets could affect banks. We believe that the specific, identifiable effect on banks may be significant and, in a few cases, could lead to downgrades. Large global institutions have direct exposure to the bond insurers in a number of ways.
To learn more, click or copy and paste the URL below:
(subscription required)
http://standardandpoors.rsys1.net/servlet/cc5?kHiQAYTCQTVsLgHxhilpuHQJhuV2VTD
Bond insurers are suffering as a result of their roles as guarantors of mortgage-related securities, and downgrading them could affect all markets in which they are active, including the municipal bond, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other structured finance areas. In turn, dislocation in those markets could affect banks. We believe that the specific, identifiable effect on banks may be significant and, in a few cases, could lead to downgrades. Large global institutions have direct exposure to the bond insurers in a number of ways.
To learn more, click or copy and paste the URL below:
(subscription required)
http://standardandpoors.rsys1.net/servlet/cc5?kHiQAYTCQTVsLgHxhilpuHQJhuV2VTD
Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities
305 U.S. RMBS Ratings On Watch Neg After Rating Actions On Bond Insurers FGIC, MBIA, And XLCA
We placed our ratings on 305 classes from 132 U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions on CreditWatch with negative implications due to recent rating and CreditWatch actions on several bond insurers. In addition, the ratings on 329 other U.S. RMBS classes with exposure to the affected bond insurers that were on CreditWatch negative before the rating actions will remain on CreditWatch.
To learn more, click or copy and paste the URL below:
http://standardandpoors.rsys1.net/servlet/cc5?kHiQAYTCQTVsLgHxhilpuHQJhuV2VTR
305 U.S. RMBS Ratings On Watch Neg After Rating Actions On Bond Insurers FGIC, MBIA, And XLCA
We placed our ratings on 305 classes from 132 U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions on CreditWatch with negative implications due to recent rating and CreditWatch actions on several bond insurers. In addition, the ratings on 329 other U.S. RMBS classes with exposure to the affected bond insurers that were on CreditWatch negative before the rating actions will remain on CreditWatch.
To learn more, click or copy and paste the URL below:
http://standardandpoors.rsys1.net/servlet/cc5?kHiQAYTCQTVsLgHxhilpuHQJhuV2VTR
Hedgie Blames PE For Tough Time
The head of hedge fund strategies at AIG Investments blames the private equity boom for making it more difficult for hedge funds to short.Read more
The head of hedge fund strategies at AIG Investments blames the private equity boom for making it more difficult for hedge funds to short.Read more
Japanese Hedge Funds Seeing Red
FINalternatives - New York,NY,USA
Predictions of doom and gloom abound after investors yanked at least US$7.7 billion from Japanese hedge funds last year—and possibly as much as US$20 ...
FINalternatives - New York,NY,USA
Predictions of doom and gloom abound after investors yanked at least US$7.7 billion from Japanese hedge funds last year—and possibly as much as US$20 ...
Citadel Going Public? I-P-NO...For Now
A spinoff raises eyebrows, but the hedge fund giant is unlikely to sell shares. Read More
A spinoff raises eyebrows, but the hedge fund giant is unlikely to sell shares. Read More
Goldman Sachs Could Take Some Heat for Bayou
HedgeCo.Net - Tuesday February 05, 08:16
HedgeCo.Net - Tuesday February 05, 08:16
French Official Scolds Bank
Report Criticizes Internal Controls, Not Management
(By John Ward Anderson, The Washington Post)
Report Criticizes Internal Controls, Not Management
(By John Ward Anderson, The Washington Post)
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Yield Curve Corner
WALL STREET DAILY By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
Pushing on a String? As the Fed Eases, Banks Tighten
Banks' curtailment on lending blunts the Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120215442443341833.html?mod=djemBF
Pushing on a String? As the Fed Eases, Banks Tighten
Banks' curtailment on lending blunts the Fed's efforts to stimulate the economy.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120215442443341833.html?mod=djemBF
Bernanke's future bleak. Ben Bernanke's first term as Fed chairman expires in two years. With growing criticism that the Fed was behind the curve on recent market turmoil, Bernanke's best chance of another term is presumably if a Republican wins the presidency. The problem? John McCain, the likely candidate, has been less-than-flattering of Bernanke.
Asia Day Ahead: Bernanke's Rate Decision May End Dollar Slide
Bloomberg - USA
4 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke's decision to lower interest rates 1.25 percentage points last month will end the dollar's two-year slide, according to the ...
Bloomberg - USA
4 (Bloomberg) -- Ben S. Bernanke's decision to lower interest rates 1.25 percentage points last month will end the dollar's two-year slide, according to the ...
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Natural Disaster Corner
Climate Prediction http://www.nws.noaa.gov/predictions.php
World Meterological Organization http://severe.worldweather.org/
Tornadoes: http://www.disastercenter.com/tornado.htm
Great Sat Pictures of events: http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRChondo036_MT.jpg
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Tamiflu Compromised? February 1, 2008 | 2131 GMT. Tamiflu boxes. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images. Summary. The World Health Organization announced Feb. ... |
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Iranian Situation and Other Man Made Disasters
GAO Report Challenges Effect of Longtime U.S. Sanctions on Iran
Washington Post Tue, 05 Feb 2008 9:12 AM PST
A three-year international effort to pressure Iran is faltering, with a new report to Congress questioning the impact of 20 years of U.S. economic sanctions on Tehran and a long-sought U.N. resolution against Iran in trouble.
Washington Post Tue, 05 Feb 2008 9:12 AM PST
A three-year international effort to pressure Iran is faltering, with a new report to Congress questioning the impact of 20 years of U.S. economic sanctions on Tehran and a long-sought U.N. resolution against Iran in trouble.
Iran will have nuclear weapon in three years: Mossad
AFP via Yahoo! News Tue, 05 Feb 2008 3:05 AM PST
Israel's Mossad spy agency estimates Iran will develop a nuclear weapon within three years and continue to provide rockets to regional armed groups, a newspaper reported on Tuesday.
AFP via Yahoo! News Tue, 05 Feb 2008 3:05 AM PST
Israel's Mossad spy agency estimates Iran will develop a nuclear weapon within three years and continue to provide rockets to regional armed groups, a newspaper reported on Tuesday.
Iran: Iraqi Trade Delegation Visits
February 5, 2008 1504 GMT
An Iraqi trade delegation arrived in Ahvaz, Iran, to discuss expanding trade between the two...
http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/iran_iraqi_trade_delegation_visits
February 5, 2008 1504 GMT
An Iraqi trade delegation arrived in Ahvaz, Iran, to discuss expanding trade between the two...
http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/iran_iraqi_trade_delegation_visits
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Opalesque’s Corner
- Opalesque Exclusive: Swiss working group to examine fiscal and
regulatory framework regarding hedge funds and private equity
- Fund launches: U.S. firm launches mortgage hedge fund after achieving 90% annualized rate of return on its portfolio of loans in 2007, Update: Cumulus launches L/S climate change fund, assembles top academic advisory board, Abu Dhabi Investment House launches Al Joud equity fund, Guy Wyser-Pratte, Knight Vinke team up for new activist hedge fund targeting underperforming European companies
- Performance: Managed-futures giant Campbell & Co. hurt by currencies in 2007, Goldman stock picking fund down 6% for January
- Investors flee Japan hedge funds, prompting liquidations or change of strategy
- Indices: DMX is the top performing AI-Index in January 2008 with +3.24%, Grains best sector at +2.67%, Dow Jones hedge fund indices all red in January, equity L/S down -10.04%
- Welton added to the FTSE Hedge CTA/Managed Futures Index
- Surveys: Hedge fund launches raised $31.5bln in 2007, multi-strategy funds raised most, Watson Wyatt survey: Boutiques to trump bigger rivals
- Pyramis shuts U.S. equity market-neutral strategy to investors
- IPOs: Citadel splits off options unit from hedge funds, a prelude to a public offering?, Och-Ziff declares dividend on Class A shares for Q4 at $1.20
- Manager Profile: Gibbs`Jupiter Hyde Park hedge fund takes advantage of falling share prices
- Niche investing: Chicago film company offers innovative way for investors to get 100% deductions for film investments, Contemporary art values up, but decline expected
- Outlook: Barclay Hedge: Nimble firms to shine in challenging year, equity specialists to experience tough time, funds able to handle volatility to fare better
- People: BNP Paribas expands US sales and relationship management team, Legg Mason names head of international asset management, Umezaki sets up management firm in Singapore, Walkers Funds Services adds management, staff to manage strong growth (35%)
- SocGen Update: WSJ Inside Report: How to lose $7.2bln: A trader`s tale, how Mustier called in doctor as stress levels rose at 3am, France seeks stricter bank controls post-SocGen, What the SocGen mess means for your company - nine questions, Societe Generale on trial in French-Israel scam, criminal case adds to SocGen woes, U.S. regulators probe stock sales of a SocGen director
- Legal: Toxicology report on Seth Tobias said to find drugs, Ex-Credit Suisse banker found guilty of insider trading related to a string of corporate takeovers
- Institutions: International Organisation of Pension Supervisors (OPS) releases `Good Practices` guide for risk management of alternative investments by pension funds, Interview: Next challenge - face to face with Mark Anson, now Nuveen president, PIOnline Special: What the biggest hedge funds (top ten list included) did to attract the attention (and assets) of institutional investors
- Regulators: Update: The EU and SEC`s strive for collaboration following Cox and McCreevy`s meeting, SEC may approve first active ETF, Comment: The apparent gaps in securities market regulation hinders the healthy development of markets
- Rating Agencies: Moody`s worried demands of aggressive investors can impair credit quality for bondholders, Moody`s considering using numerical system for ratings
- Commodities: Analysis: Recession or not, commodities prices have room to grow, Tidal wave of institutional money heading towards commodities will ensure prices are underpinned, Speculators give a stir to coffee and cocoa prices
- Currency Trading: Dollar bulls make their case: overvaluation of the euro favors the dollar
- Exchanges: CME bid for Nymex a `strategic decision`, combined unit to control 98% of US futures, Nymex Holdings plans to offer emissions contract by 1Q end
- Northern Rock Update: Olivant abandons rescue plan, RAB Capital backs in-house proposal, Northern Rock shares down 3.4% as rescue choices narrow
- Europe: Interview: German concern over hedge funds has `cooled` but not disappeared
- Middle-East: Deutsche Bank expects growth in demand for Sharia-compliant hedge funds in 2008, Dow Jones indexes named Best Islamic Index Provider of the Year
- Asia: Deutsche Bank study says Asian infrastructure investment will continue to evolve quickly, Asia managers look to smaller markets for outperformance this year, Chinese investors believe that authorities will make sure stock market is healthy when Summer Olympics open
- Other Voices: The impact of energy prices and Chinese/Indian demand on food is likely to multiply the effects of global inflation
- Sovereign Wealth Funds: UAE economy minister says state-run funds are `misunderstood`
- Loans for buy-outs plunge in value due to firesales
- Activist News: Algebris Investments supports Franklin`s Generali challenge, Generali rejects criticism, sticks with expansion strategy, Pentwater to seek Post board seats, Third Avenue and VR Global Partners oppose Hypo offer
- News Briefs:OPEC: Market well-supplied with oil, output will remain unchanged, Emil van Essen trading program up 33% in 2007, 31% in January, UBS to hand out hefty bonuses, Rothschild near to closing $700m realty fund, 77% of pension funds willing to invest in certain asset classes without benchmark
- ...And finally: Banker learns of redundancy by `out-of-office` e-mail
- Logon: http://www.opalesque.com/main.php?act=archive
regulatory framework regarding hedge funds and private equity
- Fund launches: U.S. firm launches mortgage hedge fund after achieving 90% annualized rate of return on its portfolio of loans in 2007, Update: Cumulus launches L/S climate change fund, assembles top academic advisory board, Abu Dhabi Investment House launches Al Joud equity fund, Guy Wyser-Pratte, Knight Vinke team up for new activist hedge fund targeting underperforming European companies
- Performance: Managed-futures giant Campbell & Co. hurt by currencies in 2007, Goldman stock picking fund down 6% for January
- Investors flee Japan hedge funds, prompting liquidations or change of strategy
- Indices: DMX is the top performing AI-Index in January 2008 with +3.24%, Grains best sector at +2.67%, Dow Jones hedge fund indices all red in January, equity L/S down -10.04%
- Welton added to the FTSE Hedge CTA/Managed Futures Index
- Surveys: Hedge fund launches raised $31.5bln in 2007, multi-strategy funds raised most, Watson Wyatt survey: Boutiques to trump bigger rivals
- Pyramis shuts U.S. equity market-neutral strategy to investors
- IPOs: Citadel splits off options unit from hedge funds, a prelude to a public offering?, Och-Ziff declares dividend on Class A shares for Q4 at $1.20
- Manager Profile: Gibbs`Jupiter Hyde Park hedge fund takes advantage of falling share prices
- Niche investing: Chicago film company offers innovative way for investors to get 100% deductions for film investments, Contemporary art values up, but decline expected
- Outlook: Barclay Hedge: Nimble firms to shine in challenging year, equity specialists to experience tough time, funds able to handle volatility to fare better
- People: BNP Paribas expands US sales and relationship management team, Legg Mason names head of international asset management, Umezaki sets up management firm in Singapore, Walkers Funds Services adds management, staff to manage strong growth (35%)
- SocGen Update: WSJ Inside Report: How to lose $7.2bln: A trader`s tale, how Mustier called in doctor as stress levels rose at 3am, France seeks stricter bank controls post-SocGen, What the SocGen mess means for your company - nine questions, Societe Generale on trial in French-Israel scam, criminal case adds to SocGen woes, U.S. regulators probe stock sales of a SocGen director
- Legal: Toxicology report on Seth Tobias said to find drugs, Ex-Credit Suisse banker found guilty of insider trading related to a string of corporate takeovers
- Institutions: International Organisation of Pension Supervisors (OPS) releases `Good Practices` guide for risk management of alternative investments by pension funds, Interview: Next challenge - face to face with Mark Anson, now Nuveen president, PIOnline Special: What the biggest hedge funds (top ten list included) did to attract the attention (and assets) of institutional investors
- Regulators: Update: The EU and SEC`s strive for collaboration following Cox and McCreevy`s meeting, SEC may approve first active ETF, Comment: The apparent gaps in securities market regulation hinders the healthy development of markets
- Rating Agencies: Moody`s worried demands of aggressive investors can impair credit quality for bondholders, Moody`s considering using numerical system for ratings
- Commodities: Analysis: Recession or not, commodities prices have room to grow, Tidal wave of institutional money heading towards commodities will ensure prices are underpinned, Speculators give a stir to coffee and cocoa prices
- Currency Trading: Dollar bulls make their case: overvaluation of the euro favors the dollar
- Exchanges: CME bid for Nymex a `strategic decision`, combined unit to control 98% of US futures, Nymex Holdings plans to offer emissions contract by 1Q end
- Northern Rock Update: Olivant abandons rescue plan, RAB Capital backs in-house proposal, Northern Rock shares down 3.4% as rescue choices narrow
- Europe: Interview: German concern over hedge funds has `cooled` but not disappeared
- Middle-East: Deutsche Bank expects growth in demand for Sharia-compliant hedge funds in 2008, Dow Jones indexes named Best Islamic Index Provider of the Year
- Asia: Deutsche Bank study says Asian infrastructure investment will continue to evolve quickly, Asia managers look to smaller markets for outperformance this year, Chinese investors believe that authorities will make sure stock market is healthy when Summer Olympics open
- Other Voices: The impact of energy prices and Chinese/Indian demand on food is likely to multiply the effects of global inflation
- Sovereign Wealth Funds: UAE economy minister says state-run funds are `misunderstood`
- Loans for buy-outs plunge in value due to firesales
- Activist News: Algebris Investments supports Franklin`s Generali challenge, Generali rejects criticism, sticks with expansion strategy, Pentwater to seek Post board seats, Third Avenue and VR Global Partners oppose Hypo offer
- News Briefs:OPEC: Market well-supplied with oil, output will remain unchanged, Emil van Essen trading program up 33% in 2007, 31% in January, UBS to hand out hefty bonuses, Rothschild near to closing $700m realty fund, 77% of pension funds willing to invest in certain asset classes without benchmark
- ...And finally: Banker learns of redundancy by `out-of-office` e-mail
- Logon: http://www.opalesque.com/main.php?act=archive
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Misc. Items of Interest
Tobias Had Cocaine, Sleeping Pills In System
FINalternatives - Tuesday February 05, 09:47 GMT
FINalternatives - Tuesday February 05, 09:47 GMT
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Funnies, Facts, Quotes, etc….
ineffectual in-ih-FEK-choo-uhl, adjective:
Not producing the proper effect; without effect; weak; useless; futile; unavailing.
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Conference, Courses, Books, Papers
Great Research Sites:
Merrill Lynch research Link to full report including important disclosures see example
John Mauldin’s Weekly Analysis
James Altucher’s Website:
Other useful sites:
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Index Corner
The CSFB/Tremont Hedge Fund Index www.hedgeindex.com.
The Cogent Dynamic Averages http://www.cogenthedge.com/home/inv_strategy.asphttp://www.cogenthedge.com/home/inv_strategy.asp
The Dow Jones Indices: http://www.djhedgefundindexes.com/index.cfm?event=viewPremiumContent (free registration)
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Regulatory Info
investor.info@sfc.hkhttp://www.sfc.hk/sfc/html/EN/inutilbar/contact/contact.htmlhttp://www.sfc.hk/sfc/html/EN/inutilbar/contact/contact.htmlhttp://www.sfc.hk/sfc/html/EN/inutilbar/contact/contact.html
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Disclaimer
The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell any security or other type of vehicles to or by anyone in any jurisdictions, nor should it be regarded as a contractual document. Under no circumstances should the information provided on this document be considered as financial advice, or as a sufficient basis on which to make investment decisions. The information contained herein has been gathered by Investor DNA, LLC from sources deemed reliable as of the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy or completeness is given. Investor DNA, LLC is not responsible for and provides no guarantee with respect to any of the information provided herein or through the use of any hypertext link. Past results are no indication of future performance. All information in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or accounting advice. All materials are the property of the
respective publishers, as referenced by header and appropriate hypertext links.
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