Main News

 

What's Ahead for the Global Economy in 2008? Reports from Around the Network
Though the subprime mess and rising oil prices slammed the U.S. economy during much of 2007, other emerging markets -- especially China and India -- seem to be on a roll. China's growth rate of more than 11% is likely to continue, and India, too, should be able to sustain a high rate of GDP growth, even if it slows from last year's 9%. Latin America, meanwhile, is cautiously optimistic but could see a moderate decline in 2008. The Knowledge@Wharton Network sites -- including Universia Knowledge@Wharton, China Knowledge@Wharton and India Knowledge@Wharton -- spoke with Wharton faculty and other experts about what to expect during the coming year.
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/1871.cfm

 

Have you ever watched one of those sappy, sentimental movies that have at the end a montage of all of the previous scenes of the movie set to some sweeping, sad music? “The Year in Review” is a similar editorial exercise. It is a chance for a publication to become nostalgic over events that occurred a scant 1-12 months prior. Here at Risk Management Reports, we do not engage in such frivolous nonsense, choosing instead to engage in a slightly different form of frivolous nonsense: predictions.

Full Story...

 

by Christopher Holt

 

Blackstone to Acquire Hedge-Fund GSO for $930 Million (Update6)
Source: Bloomberg
Blackstone Group LP, the world's largest leveraged-buyout firm, agreed to buy hedge-fund manager GSO Capital Partners LP for $930 million in cash and stock to increase credit investments as LBOs dry up. More... <http://www.hedgefund-index.com/newstoday.asp>

 

BEAR SHUTS ANOTHER SUBPRIME HEDGE FUND
New York Post Thu, 10 Jan 2008 0:52 AM PST
Bear Stearns is closing a hedge fund that invested in asset-backed securities, abandoning a salvage plan after the fund plummeted at least 39 percent last year. The Bear Stearns Asset Backed Securities fund, which in August held about $900 million...

 

Teacher pension fund is silent on subprime, CDO losses
Austin American-Statesman - Austin,TX,USA
The TRS said its CDO investments (known as “toxic waste” in some circles because as more borrowers default on loans, the bottom rung of these investments ...
See all stories on this topic

 

25 CDOs to meet their maker; billions poised to liquidate
FT Alphaville - London,UK
Beginnings of a CDO firesale? After two months of tension, all of a sudden, senior debtholders can’t seem to liquidate their CDOs fast enough. ...
See all stories on this topic

U.S. Economic Forecast: Can Consumers Rescue The New Year?
The economy is sliding on the brink of recession. We expect economic growth to average near 1% for the next three quarters (the fourth quarter of 2007 through the second quarter of 2008). The housing decline will have its biggest negative impact during this period, and orders data suggest slower capital spending. But whether this becomes an official recession is more a semantic issue than a real one. The slowdown will feel like a recession to most people. The two sectors keeping the economy out of recession are foreign trade and consumer spending.
To learn more, click or copy and paste the URL below:
(subscription required)
http://standardandpoors.rsys1.net/servlet/cc5?kHiQASCRQTVsLgHxhilpuHQJhuV2VR

 

CDO Spotlight: Reviewing A Decade Of U.S. CLO Performance And Equity Returns
Recent events in the structured finance market and the increasing concerns related to collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) have prompted us to review U.S. collateralized loan obligation (CLO) performance. This examination found that, since the CLO market began growing in 1997, CLO performance has remained strong through a number of economic cycles that affected corporate credit. The strong overall CLO rating performance primarily reflects the senior secured nature of the underlying assets, which had recovery rates of 70%-80% of par.
To learn more, click or copy and paste the URL below:
(subscription required)
http://standardandpoors.rsys1.net/servlet/cc5?kHiQASCRQTVsLgHxhilpuHQJhuV2VS

 

EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre's working papers and publications on traditional investment management topics are freely accessible on the following page of our website:

http://www.edhec-risk.com/edhec_publications/all_publications

 

The latest Wall Street Journal survey of economic forecasters sees 42% odds of a U.S. recession this year along with mounting inflationary pressures, an uncomfortable mix that could influence the focus of the presidential campaign and complicate life for the Federal Reserve. The average of the 54 forecasts sees the economy growing at slower than a 2% annual rate for the first and second quarters of this year.

On the political front, while the majority of respondents say the stock market would perform better under a Republican president and most personally back a Republican, the economists expect a Democrat to win this year's election. Some 56% disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy versus 59% of the public in a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.
For more information, see: http://wsj.com/article/0,,SB119990867859778525,00.html?mod=djemalertNEWS

 

CANADA – Quebec has had its financial outlook rating for long-term foreign and currency debt downgraded from ‘positive’ to ‘stable’ by Fitch Ratings, due to rising debt levels and high pension liabilities.

 

Recession or Recession-Like?
On the economy, the only consensus is uncertainty. Read More

 

Does Microfinance Need Regulators? Nobel Laureate Yunus Thinks So...
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/india/article.cfm?articleid=4246

 

Seth Tobias's Murderer Did Not Work Alone
Dealbreaker.com - Thursday January 10, 09:52 GMT

 

Carbon Trading
The carbon offset market is set to take off. But could U.S. businesses end up buying a lot of hot air?

 

LONDON (HedgeWorld.com)—GAM, one of the biggest alternative investment operators, has absorbed Julius Baer's Alternative Risk Trading (ART) team, a move that expands its structured product capabilities. ......

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Yield Curve Corner

 

Bernanke signals 'substantive' cut in US interest rates
Independent - London,England,UK
In a speech shorn of the usual caveats and ambiguities, Mr Bernanke said the Fed had been persuaded of the need to act by increasingly gloomy economic data. ...

 

Dollar weaker after Bernanke flags Fed rate cuts
Reuters - USA
Bernanke said the Fed was ready to take substantial additional action to boost the economy, but he also said the Fed was not forecasting a recession. ...

 

UP AND DOWN WALL STREET DAILY  By RANDALL W. FORSYTH
Reality Bites the Fed, Finally
Bernanke catches up with the Treasury market's conclusion that steep rate cuts lie ahead.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119999251810981603.html?mod=djemBF

 

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Natural Disaster Corner

 

Climate Prediction  http://www.nws.noaa.gov/predictions.php

World Meterological Organization http://severe.worldweather.org/

Tornadoes: http://www.disastercenter.com/tornado.htm

Great Sat Pictures of events: http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCelisa010_GJ.jpg

 

Severe weather outbreaks endemic of clash between colder/drier air masses and unseasonably mild/moist air masses across Nation, and heralding the resuming of more Wintery themes.

Full Story...

 

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Iranian Situation and Other Man Made Disasters

 

U.S. sends formal protest to Iran over incident
Reuters via Yahoo! News Thu, 10 Jan 2008 12:31 PM PST
The United States sent a formal protest to Iran on Thursday over an incident in which Iranian speedboats aggressively approached U.S. Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the State Department said.

 

Iran airs its version of encounter with U.S. ships
CNN.com Thu, 10 Jan 2008 11:07 AM PST
Iran on Thursday released video of its naval forces interacting with U.S. coalition warships in the Persian Gulf region -- but unlike video from the Pentagon, it did not show a threatening exchange.

 

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Opalesque’s Corner

 

- Opalesque Exclusive: London`s Amplitude Capital hints to soft close quant fund after returning nearly 40% since July, says it`s working on `strong line up of new investments for next quarter`
- Opalesque Exclusive: Culross FoFs return up to 45.13% in 2007
- Fund launches:  FrontPoint preps asset-backed securities hedge fund, hires C-BASS team, Dalton Investments starts L/S Asia fund, Former SAC pros to launch global L/S equity fund,  Evolution top-trader sets up UK equities L/S hedge fund; Pimco plans Asian local-currency fund
- Bear Stearns closes asset-backed securities hedge fund after 39% loss,  Palomar Structured Credit Hedge Fund Index shows negative return for the second month in a row
- Bear and Fortress held tie-up talks
- Man Group assets increase to record USD71.7bn
- Event: Connecticut Hedge Fund Association, Yale University expert panel examines `Investing in Climate Change`
- ETrade sells USD3bln of mortgage, municipal bonds, ends institutional trading services, Citadel`s bet on ETrade looking good
- Update: Hennessee Hedge Fund Index up 0.30% in December
- Hedge Funds Care raises USD51k at Midwest fall gala
- People: GAM adds Julius Bear`s structured products team, FrontFour names Pirate alum COO, Frontier Capital appoint new partners, Johan Magnusson new AP1 boss
- Citigroup, Merrill seek more foreign capital, Goldman Sachs sees recession in 2008, Fears rise for UK economy, FED rate at 2.5% by Q3, Countrywide says foreclosures highest on record
- FRM sets up vehicle for fund seed capital
- Liabilities investor Paternoster managing GBP1.5bln assets
- Exchanges: NYSE reportedly in talks to acquire Amex, Chicago Climate Exchange more than doubles trading volume, members up to 401 from 238, CME to halve trading times, New European upstart stock-trading platform gets institutional money
- Environmental Trading News: Investorideas.com announces its 2008 Global Greentech Online Investor Conference, Who could get sued for global warming?  Firms risk lawsuit for non disclosure
- S&P launches inverse index for S&P500
- Commodities: Looking back and looking into 2008, Interview: what`s real and what`s not in  Alternative Energy Stocks,  Top alternative energy investments for the new year
- Confluence Whitepaper helps fund administrators tackle FAS
157 reporting requirements
- Regulators: SEC, SEBI announce increased cooperation
- Legal:  Australia`s Basis asks court for guidance on redemptions, SMH Capital fined $450.000 for soft dollar payments, distributing improper hedge fund sales materials, Harbinger Capital aims to block Lehman`s bid to get paid in Asarco bankruptcy case, Ex-pastor: Collapse wrecked my life, Nineteen brokerage firms fined for overstating trading volumes
- Architect of Hong Kong dollar peg defends the policy
- China QFII funds lag in performance, $2.2bln exited in 07 as investors turned cautious
- Asian firms become the acquirers, record outbound M&A
numbers
- Activist News:  Reddy Ice in talks to revise merger pact with GSO Capital, Steel Partners calls for Brink`s spinoff, Jana Partners raises stake in CNet, Ackman raises Borders stake to 18%
- News Briefs: Vanguard is top-selling US fund company, New listings on AIM fell in 2007, Goldman plans to put around $300m into alumni-run China private equity fund
- ...And finally: German boss fires staff for not smoking
- Logon: http://www.opalesque.com/main.php?act=archive

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Misc. Items of Interest

 

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Funnies, Facts, Quotes, etc….

 

remonstrate ih-MAHN-strayt; REH-mun-strayt, intransitive verb:

1. To present and urge reasons in opposition to an act, measure, or any course of proceedings -- usually used with 'with'.
2. To say or plead in protest, opposition, or reproof.

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Conference, Courses, Books, Papers

 

Great Research Sites:

 

Merrill Lynch research Link to full report including important disclosures see example

 

John Mauldin’s Weekly Analysis

 

James Altucher’s Website:

 

Other useful sites:

 

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Index Corner

 

The CSFB/Tremont Hedge Fund Index www.hedgeindex.com.

The Cogent Dynamic Averages http://www.cogenthedge.com/home/inv_strategy.asphttp://www.cogenthedge.com/home/inv_strategy.asp

The Dow Jones Indices: http://www.djhedgefundindexes.com/index.cfm?event=viewPremiumContent (free registration)

HFRX Indices https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/hfrx_reg/index.php?fuse=login&1170880431

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Regulatory Info

 

 

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Disclaimer

 

The information contained in this document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell any security or other type of vehicles to or by anyone in any jurisdictions, nor should it be regarded as a contractual document. Under no circumstances should the information provided on this document be considered as financial advice, or as a sufficient basis on which to make investment decisions. The information contained herein has been gathered by Investor DNA, LLC from sources deemed reliable as of the date of publication, but no warranty of accuracy or completeness is given. Investor DNA, LLC is not responsible for and provides no guarantee with respect to any of the information provided herein or through the use of any hypertext link. Past results are no indication of future performance. All information in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or accounting advice. All materials are the property of the respective publishers, as referenced by header and appropriate hypertext links.